17 Aug · 13:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ML
🇨🇿Michal Lysakowski
ELO 1621
FormLLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Lysakowski
MS
🇨🇿Marcin Stepien
ELO 1613
FormWLLLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Lysakowski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.03· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H104-128
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.