18 Aug · 12:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AC
🇨🇿Ales Cizek
ELO 1504
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Cizek
MR
🇨🇿Michal Raska
ELO 1497
FormWWWWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Raska🌟Cizek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (36)
Fair odds · Cizek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H10-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.