18 Aug · 13:55 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Benes
ELO 1632
FormLLWWW
60%Win chancemodel fair 1.67Vesecky
DV
🇨🇿David Vesecky
ELO 1749
FormWWWLW
40%
60%
🔥 Underdog lean · Benes
Fair odds · Vesecky
Model 60% · 1.67vsMarket 64% · 1.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
19%
0-3
19%
3-1
15%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+117
H2H29-13
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+117)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (29-13)