18 Aug · 07:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TM
🇨🇿Tomas Molin
ELO 1527
FormWLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Molin
LL
🇨🇿Laurent Lasota
ELO 1520
FormLLWWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lasota🌟Lasota covers set handicap as underdog 75% (28)
Fair odds · Molin
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H4-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.