18 Aug · 10:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TL
🇨🇿Tomas Lysek
ELO 1520
FormLLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Lysek
MR
🇨🇿Michal Raska
ELO 1497
FormWWWWW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Raska🌟Lysek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 17% (23)
Fair odds · Lysek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+23
H2H3-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.