18 Aug · 09:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LL
🇨🇿Laurent Lasota
ELO 1520
FormLLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Lasota
LK
🇨🇿Lukas Kantor
ELO 1466
FormWLWLL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Lasota
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+54
H2H4-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.