18 Aug · 11:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JG
🇨🇿Jan Gembala
ELO 1584
FormWLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Gembala
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1577
FormLLWLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Krupnik🌟Gembala rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (71)
Fair odds · Gembala
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H12-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.