18 Aug · 12:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JG
🇨🇿Jan Gembala
ELO 1584
FormWLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Krenek
TK
🇨🇿Tomas Krenek
ELO 1591
FormWWWWW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Gembala🌟Krenek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 28% (68)
Fair odds · Krenek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H10-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.