18 Aug · 12:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Benes
ELO 1632
FormLLWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Cerny
MC
🇨🇿Martin Cerny
ELO 1634
FormWWLLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Cerny
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 36% · 2.81· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+2
H2H41-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.