18 Aug · 14:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PC
🇨🇿Pavel Chvatal
ELO 1589
FormLWLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Chvatal
RF
🇨🇿Radek Fitl
ELO 1517
FormLLLLL
56%
44%
🌟Chvatal rarely covers set handicap as favourite 24% (17)
Fair odds · Chvatal
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+72
H2H7-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+72)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (7-2)