18 Aug · 10:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PV
🇨🇿Pavel Vinansky
ELO 1569
FormWWLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Vinansky
LL
🇨🇿Laurent Lasota
ELO 1520
FormLLWWW
54%
46%
🌟Lasota covers set handicap as underdog 75% (28)
Fair odds · Vinansky
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+49
H2H2-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.