18 Aug · 09:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MR
🇨🇿Michal Raska
ELO 1497
FormWWWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Slavik
LS
🇨🇿Lukas Slavik
ELO 1540
FormWLWWW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Raska🌟Slavik rarely covers set handicap as favourite 21% (24)
Fair odds · Slavik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+43
H2H9-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.