18 Aug · 13:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DJ
🇨🇿Dalibor Velky Jr
ELO 1489
FormLLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Cizek
AC
🇨🇿Ales Cizek
ELO 1504
FormWLLWL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Cizek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (36)
Fair odds · Cizek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+15
H2H12-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.