18 Aug · 10:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DS
🇨🇿Dawid Stapor
ELO 1619
FormWLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Lysakowski
ML
🇨🇿Michal Lysakowski
ELO 1640
FormWWWWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Lysakowski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.80· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+21
H2H136-150
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.