18 Aug · 11:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SR
🇨🇿Szymon Radlo
ELO 1594
FormLLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Stepien
MS
🇨🇿Marcin Stepien
ELO 1623
FormLWWLW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Stepien
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 53% · 1.87· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~81 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H34-29
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.