18 Aug · 16:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1556
FormWWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Moravec
RS
🇨🇿Radek Sedlacek
ELO 1548
FormWLLWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sedlacek🌟Sedlacek covers set handicap as underdog 80% (20)
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H6-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.