18 Aug · 20:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DS
🇨🇿David Sarganek
ELO 1624
FormLWWWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Sarganek
MZ
🇨🇿Marek Zaskodny
ELO 1517
FormWLLLL
59%
41%
Fair odds · Sarganek
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~73 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+107
H2H23-17
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+107)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (23-17)