18 Aug · 17:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1556
FormWWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Krenek
TK
🇨🇿Tomas Krenek
ELO 1591
FormWWWWW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Moravec🌟Krenek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 28% (68)
Fair odds · Krenek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H20-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.