18 Aug · 22:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OK
🇨🇿Ondrej Kus
ELO 1438
FormLLLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Kus
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1433
FormLLLLL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Ogrocki🌟Kus rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (30)
Fair odds · Kus
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+5
H2H12-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.