18 Aug · 21:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1433
FormLLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Przeczek
KP
🇨🇿Kamil Przeczek
ELO 1473
FormLWWWL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Ogrocki🌟Przeczek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 38% (16)
Fair odds · Przeczek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H3-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.