18 Aug · 15:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1556
FormWWLLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Moravec
KK
🇨🇿Kamil Kleprlik
ELO 1553
FormLWLWL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kleprlik🌟Kleprlik covers set handicap as underdog 64% (33)
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+3
H2H3-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.