18 Aug · 21:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TB
🇨🇿Tomas Bartik
ELO 1674
FormWLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Bartik
FK
🇨🇿Filip Karel
ELO 1658
FormWWLWL
51%
49%
🌟Bartik goes over total as favourite 70% (23)
Fair odds · Bartik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H13-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.