18 Aug · 21:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JM
🇨🇿Jakub Mach
ELO 1543
FormWLWWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Mach
MD
🇨🇿Marek Dlask
ELO 1468
FormLLWWW
56%
44%
🌟Mach goes over total as favourite 63% (46)
Fair odds · Mach
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+75
H2H18-11
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+75)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (18-11)