18 Aug · 21:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MN
🇨🇿Michal Nemec
ELO 1375
FormLLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Nemec
JR
🇨🇿Jakub Rolik
ELO 1344
FormLLLLL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Rolik🌟Nemec rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (92)
Fair odds · Nemec
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H91-78
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.