18 Aug · 18:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MD
🇨🇿Milan Dvorak
ELO 1484
FormWWWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Volek
JV
🇨🇿Jiri Volek
ELO 1485
FormLLWWL
50%
50%
🌟Dvorak covers set handicap as underdog 63% (63)
Fair odds · Volek
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 42% · 2.41· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+1
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.