18 Aug · 22:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Michal Szostak
ELO 1463
FormLLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Komorowicz
JK
🇨🇿Jakub Komorowicz
ELO 1479
FormLWLWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Komorowicz
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 61% · 1.64· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H13-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.