19 Aug · 07:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DS
🇨🇿Dominik Stefek
ELO 1437
FormLWWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Stefek
TS
🇨🇿Tomas Stempak
ELO 1414
FormWLLLL
52%
48%
🌟Stefek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 38% (16)
Fair odds · Stefek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+23
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.