19 Aug · 12:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
TS
🇨🇿Tadeas Slivka
ELO 1509
FormWWWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Slivka
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1445
FormLWLLL
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sturma🌟Slivka rarely covers set handicap as favourite 21% (14)
Fair odds · Slivka
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+64
H2H14-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+64)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (14-9)