19 Aug · 09:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TS
🇨🇿Tomas Stempak
ELO 1414
FormWLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sturma
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1445
FormLWLLL
47%
53%
🌟Sturma rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (60)
Fair odds · Sturma
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 64% · 1.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H7-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.