19 Aug · 09:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DS
🇨🇿Dominik Stefek
ELO 1437
FormLWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sturma
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1445
FormLWLLL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Stefek🌟Sturma rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (60)
Fair odds · Sturma
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H3-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.