19 Aug · 13:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sobota
ELO 1449
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sobota
DS
🇨🇿Dominik Stefek
ELO 1437
FormLWWWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Stefek🌟Sobota goes over total as favourite 69% (29)
Fair odds · Sobota
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.