19 Aug · 12:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
FD
🇨🇿Frantisek Dvorak
ELO 1568
FormWLWWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Knazik
OK
🇨🇿Ondrej Knazik
ELO 1571
FormWLWLW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Knazik🌟Dvorak covers set handicap as underdog 64% (28)
Fair odds · Knazik
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+3
H2H28-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.