19 Aug · 14:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JM
🇨🇿Jan Muska
ELO 1580
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Holub
MH
🇨🇿Matej Holub
ELO 1595
FormLWWWW
49%
51%
🌟Muska covers set handicap as underdog 74% (23)
Fair odds · Holub
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+15
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.