19 Aug · 12:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MF
🇨🇿Martin Filipek
ELO 1475
FormLWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Moravec
LM
🇨🇿Ladislav Moravec
ELO 1483
FormWWWWW
49%
51%
🌟Moravec stays under total as favourite 68% (31)
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H9-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.