19 Aug · 08:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1445
FormLWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Snr
LS
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Snr
ELO 1478
FormWWWWL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sturma🌟Snr stays under total as favourite 73% (15)
Fair odds · Snr
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H10-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.