19 Aug · 11:25 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Benes
ELO 1638
FormLWLWL
60%Win chancemodel fair 1.67Vesecky
DV
🇨🇿David Vesecky
ELO 1767
FormWWWWW
40%
60%
🔥 Underdog lean · Benes
Fair odds · Vesecky
Model 60% · 1.67vsMarket 64% · 1.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 44%Total ~76 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
21%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
3-1
15%
Elo Gap+129
H2H31-13
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+129)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (31-13)