19 Aug · 15:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
FM
🇨🇿Filip Marat
ELO 1397
FormLWWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Moravec
LM
🇨🇿Ladislav Moravec
ELO 1483
FormWWWWW
43%
57%
🌟Moravec stays under total as favourite 68% (31)
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+86
H2H10-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+86)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-7)