19 Aug · 16:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1421
FormLLWLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Sevecek
JS
🇨🇿Jan Sevecek
ELO 1517
FormWLWWW
42%
58%
🔥 Underdog lean · Ogrocki🌟Sevecek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 28% (25)
Fair odds · Sevecek
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~74 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+96
H2H3-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+96)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-0)