19 Aug · 18:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sulc
ELO 1559
FormWWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sulc
MK
🇨🇿Marek Kulisek
ELO 1546
FormLWWLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Sulc
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.37· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H21-31
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.