19 Aug · 18:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JS
🇨🇿Jan Sevecek
ELO 1517
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sindler
JS
🇨🇿Jaroslav Sindler
ELO 1532
FormLLLLW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sevecek🌟Sevecek covers set handicap as underdog 78% (18)
Fair odds · Sindler
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+15
H2H8-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.