19 Aug · 20:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KZ
🇨🇿Karel Zeman
ELO 1500
FormWWLLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Zeman
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1421
FormLLWLL
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Ogrocki🌟Zeman rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (39)
Fair odds · Zeman
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+79
H2H13-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+79)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-5)