19 Aug · 17:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AD
🇨🇿Ales Drozd
ELO 1505
FormWWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Molin
TM
🇨🇿Tomas Molin
ELO 1526
FormWWLLW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Drozd🌟Drozd covers set handicap as underdog 73% (26)
Fair odds · Molin
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+21
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.