19 Aug · 17:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JJ
🇨🇿Jan Manhal Jr
ELO 1507
FormWLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Martin
JM
🇨🇿Jirasek Martin
ELO 1540
FormLLLWW
47%
53%
🌟Martin stays under total as favourite 85% (13)
Fair odds · Martin
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.