19 Aug · 17:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sulc
ELO 1559
FormWWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sulc
DH
🇨🇿Daniel Hyza
ELO 1525
FormLLLWL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Sulc
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 36% · 2.81· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H3-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.