19 Aug · 15:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KB
🇨🇿Karel Baros
ELO 1515
FormLLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Baros
AD
🇨🇿Ales Drozd
ELO 1505
FormWWLWL
51%
49%
🌟Drozd covers set handicap as underdog 73% (26)
Fair odds · Baros
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.