19 Aug · 21:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MZ
🇨🇿Martin Zajicek
ELO 1503
FormLWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Barsa
TB
🇨🇿Tomas Barsa
ELO 1557
FormWLLWL
46%
54%
🌟Zajicek rarely covers set handicap as underdog 38% (16)
Fair odds · Barsa
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+54
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.