19 Aug · 21:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DB
🇨🇿Daniel Branny
ELO 1571
FormWWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Branny
TM
🇨🇿Tomas Molin
ELO 1526
FormWWLLW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Molin🌟Branny rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (37)
Fair odds · Branny
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+45
H2H2-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.