19 Aug · 18:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PK
🇨🇿Pawel Kos
ELO 1501
FormWLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Zapala
KZ
🇨🇿Krzysztof Zapala
ELO 1554
FormLLLWL
46%
54%
Fair odds · Zapala
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+53
H2H41-44
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.