20 Aug · 13:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1457
FormWWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Jemelka
IJ
🇨🇿Ivan Jemelka
ELO 1476
FormWWWLW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sturma🌟Sturma covers set handicap as underdog 72% (71)
Fair odds · Jemelka
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 29% · 3.44· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+19
H2H0-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.