20 Aug · 07:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JS
🇨🇿Jan Sevecek
ELO 1526
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sevecek
FM
🇨🇿Filip Mandrysz
ELO 1518
FormWLWLL
51%
49%
🌟Sevecek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 28% (25)
Fair odds · Sevecek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H4-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.